January 03, 2024
“Put These Charts on Your Wall”
2023 Edition | by Charlie Bilello
2023 in Charts
Macro strategist Charlie Bilello has released his annual presentation recapping the year using charts. If you haven’t already seen it floating around on social media, please click the video above.
The presentation is simple, fast, fun, and does a great job of comparing common investment narratives with facts. It is also full of important lessons for long-term investing and why it is so risky to try and predict how the market will react to macro-economic data.
Intelligent investing (vs trading) requires enduring pain because prices can disconnect from fundamentals for what feels like an eternity.
The famous investor Peter Lynch summed it up best: “I’ve always said, the key organ here [in investing] isn’t the brain, it’s the stomach”.
Links to my top-10 favorite slides:
00:23 Overbought! Oversold! “It’s at Support/Resistance and Can’t Possibly Go Any Lower/Higher”
01:55 Fed Policy & Stock Market Returns: “Stocks Can’t Go Up When the Fed Tightens”
04:20 The Stock Market Is Not the Economy: “Bear Markets are Always a Sign of Recession”
05:20 Bear Market Bottoms: “You Can Time a Bear Market Bottom”
09:35 Bank Failures and Financial Crises: “Bank Failures Must Lead to Another Financial Crisis”
15:54 Shorting Stocks Based on Valuation: “A High Valuation is a Sufficient Reason to Short a Stock”
21:42 Bonds Have Risk: “Bonds are Risk-Free“
25:20 Makes Changes to Your Portfolio Based on Headlines: “Making Changes to your Portfolio Based on Headlines is a Good Idea”
28:06 Big Returns, Big Drawdowns: “Big Returns Come Without Big Drawdowns”
26:26 Rising National Debt: “Rising National Debt Must Be Bad for the Stock Market”
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